By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is extending yesterday’s slide as investors anticipate the impact of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, set to come into effect on April 2, and key macroeconomic data due later Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC) has lost 2.5% in the past 24 hours, which seems pretty staid when compared with an almost 6% in slide in ether (ETH), 5.5% in XRP and 7% in dogecoin (DOGE). The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) dropped 4.65%. Gold, in contrast, hit new highs.
The growing exposure to gold has benefited tokens backed by the precious metal, which CoinDesk Data’s latest stablecoin report shows climbed to a $1.4 billion market capitalization in March.
It seems clear traders are moving to reduce risk exposure with one eye on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report set to be released later. That data could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and thus any appetite for risk going forward.
Bitcoin traders are also anticipating a record-breaking $12.2 billion in BTC options expiring on Deribit today, with a max pain point at $85,000. Implied volatility, however, remains near annual lows as the expiry isn’t likely to move the market, according to Wintermute OTC trader Jake O.
“These expirations are yet to consistently move markets, largely because BTC options open interest remains small relative to spot activity,” Jake O. said in an emailed statement. “That $12B is dwarfed by $28B in spot volume traded over the past 24 hours.”
While the derisking trend grows, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen consistent inflows since mid-March, adding in nearly $1 billion over the past two weeks. In contrast, spot ether ETF outflows have remained persistent, with around $115 million exiting these funds over the same period.
Looking ahead, money managers are likely to keep on reducing risk exposure. The trend spurred Goldman Sachs to raise its gold price target for the year to $3,300 per troy ounce, with the potential to rise to $4,500 in an “extreme tail scenario.” Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.
- Macro
- March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data.
- Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5%
- March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases February unemployment rate data.
- Unemployment Rate Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
- March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data.
- GDP MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
- March 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data.
- Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
- Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%
- PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
- PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%
- Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9%
- Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2%
- April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan takes effect alongside a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain car parts.
- March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Balancer DAO is discussing the establishment of a Balancer Alliance Program, which would see the protocol share a portion of the revenue it generates with key ecosystem partners in the form of USDC as veBAL.
- CoW DAO is discussing updating the score definition for buy orders after a Base network incident revealed that the current version could lead to an excessive allocation of solver rewards.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins to be managed via a “33/33/33 split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.” It’s also voting on allocating 10 million ARB into “on-chain strategies designed to generate yield while safeguarding the principal.” Voting ends on April 3.
- March 28, 3 a.m: Ontology to hold a Weekly Community Update via X Spaces.
- Unlocks
- March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $26.47 million.
- April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $164.98 million.
- April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $15.30 million.
- April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $15.87 million.
- April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $128.09 million.
- April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.91 million.
- April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $23.54 million.
- Token Listings
- March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO).
- March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- A small set of tokens are gaining higher traction on social media platforms such as X, Reddit and Telegram, Santiment data shows, making it beneficial for traders to put on a watchlist as market conditions improve.
- Solana (SOL) leads the pack due to its high liquidity and a growing interest in Solana-based projects, alongside Curve DAO token (CRV), which has seen a 30% price rebound and increased trading activity in the past three weeks.
- COTI is generating excitement following a recent airdrop, with users exploring its supply and swapping challenges, while newly-issued Walrus (WAL), a Sui ecosystem project, is riding a wave of interest fueled by trading pair mentions and exchange listings.
- Social chatter often precedes price movements because it is indicative of forthcoming demand or shifting sentiments.
Derivatives Positioning
- Global open interest across all instruments declined to $105 billion from $124 billion earlier today, coinciding with the broader drawdown in major digital assets, according to data from Laevitas.
- Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations amounted to $362 million, with long positions accounting for a dominant 83% of the wipeout.
- Among assets with more than $100 million in open interest, the steepest percentage declines were seen in Pepe (-14.0%), PNUT (-13.7%), Worldcoin (-12.6%), Avalanche (-11.9%), and BNB (-11.5%). Only three assets in this group saw an uptick in open interest over the last 24 hours: Toncoin (+15.5%), Berachain (+9.78%) and ACT (+2.15%).
- On the liquidation heatmap for the largest futures pair, recent price action has swept through major downside liquidation clusters. The next significant zones for potential liquidations are located at $86,000 and $88,000, suggesting these levels could attract volatility if approached.
Market Movements:
- BTC is down 2.34% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $85,266.30 (24hrs: -2.28%)
- ETH is down 4.77% at $,1911.49 (24hrs: -5.51%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 4.37% at 2,618.54 (24hrs: -4.55%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.99%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0155% (5.6666% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 104.43
- Gold is up 1.65% at $3,110.60/oz
- Silver is up 1.38% at $35.38/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed -1.8% at 37,120.33
- Hang Seng closed -0.65% at 23,426.60
- FTSE is up 0.29% at 8,691.20
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.14% at 5,373.72
- DJIA closed on Thursday -0.37% at 42,299.70
- S&P 500 closed -0.33% at 5,693.31
- Nasdaq closed -0.53% at 17,804.03
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,161.10
- S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.27% at 2,466.98
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 4 bps at 4.34%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% at 5,727.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.36% at 19,917.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.13% at 42,546.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 62.04 (0.44%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02241 (-2.44%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 847 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.45
- Total Fees: 5.28 BTC / $449,016
- CME Futures Open Interest: 140,460 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 27.7 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.86%
Technical Analysis
- Ether continues to lag behind the broader market, with prices consolidating around levels last seen in November 2023.
- With prices below all the key exponential moving averages (EMAs), ETH has struggled to reclaim the former support near $2,110 — a level aligned with the wick lows from the Aug. 5 and Feb. 3 sell-offs.
- This level is set to act as resistance unless the price can find acceptance above in the coming days.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $324.59 (-1.43%), down 2.87% at $315.29 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $188.58 (-2.77%), down 1.35% at $186.04
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.44 (-3.54%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.64 (-1.09%), down 1.76% at $13.40
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.77 (-1.65%), down 1.8% at $7.63
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.88 (+3.28%), down 1.52% at $7.76
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.84 (-3.45%), down 1.47% at $7.73
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.04 (-1.96%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.92 (-6.7%), up 0.22% at $37
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $52.28 (+4.56%), down 4.17% at $50.10
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: $89 million
- Cumulative net flows: $36.42 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1,122 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$4.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.423 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- Bitcoin dominance continues to increase and is now approaching a key resistance level at 62.3%.
- Currently 62.05% and holding above all major exponential moving averages (EMAs), the strength in BTC dominance suggests continued pressure on altcoins in the near term, with further downside risk likely if this trend persists.
While You Were Sleeping
In the Ether
